Your 2019 bracket requires knowledge of shot volume

rui

(gozags.com)

Shot volume is just one half (how often you shoot) of one half (offense) of basketball, so it's not the alpha and omega of the sport by any means. Then again, it's rather under-discussed.

You can't show shot volume on YouTube or Synergy, coaches can't diagram a play specifically to get an offensive board, volume doesn't get “chess match” heuristic privileges, and avoiding turnovers is supposed to occur as a matter of course.

That's all well and good, but, just like with shooting accuracy and defense, some teams are exceptionally good at shot volume. If we want to understand these teams, we should consider the frequency with which they attempt shots.

Shot volume index for tournament teams
Turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and shot volume
Conference games only: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, American, WCC

                         TO%     OR%     SVI
1.  Gonzaga             12.9    30.2    101.8
2.  LSU                 16.9    38.4    101.0
3.  Cincinnati          16.1    36.1    100.8
4.  Purdue              15.8    34.6    100.5
5.  Tennessee           15.5    31.1     99.2
6.  Houston             16.9    34.7     99.2
7.  North Carolina      17.1    34.6     99.0
8.  Virginia            15.4    30.2     98.9
9.  Villanova           15.1    29.1     98.8
10. Saint Mary's        16.8    33.0     98.6

Wherever you hear Gonzaga discussed, there will be due tributes offered to Brandon Clarke (I've offered them!) and Rui Hachimura and to the miracle that Mark Few has wrought at a small Jesuit school in Spokane. And, sure, make a mental adjustment if you wish for results from WCC games. (But not too much of one. The non-Gonzaga WCC is stronger than an entire Nevada- and Utah State-equipped Mountain West that no one's yelling at.)

Still, you can go through a good deal of Zag praise and discourse and dive deeply into Zag scouting reports before you learn that this offense's sheer volume of attempts is just as statistically extreme as is shooting 62 percent on your twos in conference play. This is an exceptionally talented team that, in addition to everything else, is enacting a really convincing tribute to Bo Ryan circa 2015.

As always, one of the most interesting nuggets coughed up by this SVI thing is how the hoops gods don't care one whit how you get the job done. Some coaches hate offensive boards. Others hate turnovers. Both approaches can land you in exactly the same spot in terms of shot attempts.

                     TO%     OR%     SVI
Duke                17.7    33.4     97.7
Michigan            13.5    22.7     97.5

So, yes, this can be handy for understanding why teams are good on offense. As for the very different quest to divine bracket tips, however, I prefer to use shot volume in about the same manner that the NCAA appears to use the NET for everyone except St. John's.

That is, I tend to think of shot volume not as a secret recipe (though it certainly worked well enough for North Carolina in 2017) and more as a disqualifier. I tend to stay away from teams too far down on the complete list, but that's just me.

Enjoy the Madness, I hope I'm not sued for capitalizing that, and be sure to take proper notice of the video- and scouting-report-blind water in which all basketball swims, the silent 25 percent.

Here's the complete roster of 2019 shot volumes in conference play, with pithy category titles at plus and minus one standard deviation.

Shot volume index (SVI)
Conference games only: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, American, WCC

Gluttonous               TO%     OR%     SVI
1.  Gonzaga             12.9    30.2    101.8
2.  LSU                 16.9    38.4    101.0
3.  Cincinnati          16.1    36.1    100.8
4.  Purdue              15.8    34.6    100.5
5.  Nebraska            14.3    28.2     99.3
6.  Tennessee           15.5    31.1     99.2
7.  Houston             16.9    34.7     99.2
8.  NC State            17.1    34.9     99.1
9.  North Carolina      17.1    34.6     98.9
10. Virginia            15.4    30.2     98.9
11. SMU                 16.5    32.5     98.8
12. Villanova           15.1    29.1     98.8
13. Saint Mary's        16.8    33.0     98.6
14. Wichita State       16.3    31.3     98.4
15. Baylor              19.1    38.4     98.3
16. Notre Dame          15.1    27.2     97.9

Normal                   TO%     OR%     SVI
17. Duke                17.7    33.4     97.7
18. San Francisco       15.1    26.9     97.7
19. Michigan            13.5    22.7     97.5
20. Kentucky            18.1    33.6     97.3
21. Michigan State      18.8    35.1     97.2
22. Arizona             16.8    29.7     97.1
23. Texas               20.1    31.1     97.0
24. Penn State          17.6    31.2     96.8
25. USC                 15.8    26.6     96.8
26. Connecticut         17.8    31.6     96.8
27. Iowa                17.1    29.4     96.6
28. Iowa State          15.9    26.6     96.6
29. Florida             17.6    30.6     96.5
30. Kansas State        17.1    29.3     96.5
31. Rutgers             17.7    30.7     96.5
32. Georgetown          17.2    29.2     96.4
33. Indiana             17.0    28.7     96.4
34. Wisconsin           14.4    22.4     96.4
35. Florida State       17.6    30.0     96.3
36. Minnesota           17.2    29.1     96.3
37. Oklahoma State      15.6    24.9     96.2
38. Auburn              17.3    28.8     96.1
39. St. John's          13.9    20.7     96.1
40. Butler              16.1    25.8     96.0
41. Oregon              17.5    28.9     95.9
42. Temple              15.7    24.5     95.9
43. Providence          18.8    31.8     95.7
44. South Carolina      18.8    31.8     95.7
45. Wake Forest         19.9    34.8     95.7
46. Texas Tech          17.1    27.0     95.5 (average, huzzah)
47. Virginia Tech       17.6    28.3     95.5
48. Colorado            18.4    30.2     95.4
49. DePaul              19.4    32.4     95.3
50. East Carolina       16.6    25.5     95.3
51. Illinois            18.0    29.0     95.3
52. Miami               16.6    25.5     95.3
53. Mississippi State   19.7    33.4     95.3
54. BYU                 15.7    23.1     95.2
55. Ole Miss            18.2    29.3     95.2
56. Oregon State        17.5    27.5     95.2
57. UCF                 18.3    28.9     95.0
58. Memphis             19.5    32.1     95.0
59. Arkansas            18.3    28.9     94.9
60. Louisville          18.5    29.4     94.9
61. UCLA                19.2    31.2     94.9
62. Boston College      17.8    27.3     94.8
63. California          16.5    24.1     94.8
64. Texas A&M           19.0    30.4     94.8
65. Arizona State       19.1    30.5     94.7
66. Oklahoma            17.2    25.3     94.6
67. Syracuse            18.8    29.2     94.5
68. Xavier              19.9    32.0     94.5
69. Pitt                19.6    31.0     94.4
70. Utah                19.0    29.5     94.4
71. Northwestern        15.5    20.0     94.0
72. Seton Hall          19.9    31.0     94.0
73. Alabama             19.3    29.0     93.8
74. TCU                 20.1    31.1     93.8
75. Maryland            20.7    32.3     93.7
76. West Virginia       22.2    36.1     93.6

Starving                 TO%     OR%     SVI
77. Ohio State          19.2    27.3     93.2
78. Pepperdine          18.3    24.9     93.1
79. Marquette           19.0    26.5     93.0
80. Kansas              20.1    29.1     92.9             
81. Loyola Marymount    19.6    27.8     92.9
82. Missouri            21.6    33.0     92.9
83. Creighton           18.0    23.5     92.8
84. Stanford            20.8    30.1     92.6
85. Pacific             19.0    24.8     92.3
86. Washington          20.4    28.5     92.3
87. Clemson             19.3    25.5     92.2
88. South Florida       23.6    36.1     91.8
89. San Diego           19.0    23.7     91.7
90. Tulsa               18.7    22.1     91.4
91. Tulane              21.4    28.0     91.0
92. Washington State    20.2    23.9     90.5
93. Vanderbilt          21.9    27.5     90.1
94. Santa Clara         20.9    22.4     89.0
95. Georgia Tech        21.9    23.9     88.6
96. Portland            20.6    20.6     88.5   

AVG                     18.0    29.4     95.5

About the Author: Taylor Coburn

Hi my name is Taylor C Copburn I love to play the odds and beat the point spread on NFL, NCAA and NBA games. Breaking down the risk value and finding the angle to collect on my wagers.

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