Australian Open Tennis 2015 Preview
The very first tennis major of the year starts on January 19th as the world's finest ladies contend in the WTA Australian Open. This 2015 WTA Australian Open tennis betting preview concentrates on the decrease of Serena Williams, making it among the most snugly contested in history.
A Strategy required for Grand Slam betting
In Grand Slam events it is essential that bettors deal with the WTA variation (best of 3 sets) as an entirely different betting proposal to the ATP variation (best of 5 sets). Whilst the men's competition is a supreme test of physical fitness, the ladies's competition is no different in match period to regular occasions.
Bettors must still think about that winning 7 matches is needed to win a Grand Slam, which is more than the common 4-5 that is required to victory on a regular WTA occasion. On that basis, bettors might want to concentrate on gamers that have regular Tour trip victories under their belt, instead of those who do not have consistency.
Just like the men's game, service hold percentages do not have the tendency to depart much from the mean. In 2014, 64.1 % of service games were held, whilst this figure was up to 61.5 % in 2013. In 2012 this was practically identical, at 61.6 %. These figures are around the 62.9 % WTA imply, and reveal that success on faster surface areas – Brisbane and Auckland – in warm-up occasions, could not be a good indication for success in Melbourne.
Historically, there is less predisposition in the direction of elite gamers in WTA Grand Slams, compared with the ATP. Having stated that, in the last years, the Australian Open has actually been won just two times by players seeded outside the leading 5 – and both of those were won by Serena Williams, who was probably among the very best 5 players worldwide at the time.
An outsider has more possibility of being runner-up nevertheless, with 5 losing finalists ranked outside the leading 5 in the last years. Dominika Cibulkova reached the last as the 20th seed in 2013, while the just recently retired Li Na – the 2014 champ – reached the 2011 and 2013 finals as 6th and 9th seed respectively.
Cibulkova, and Justine Henin (as a wildcard) were the only players outside the leading 10 to make the final, and for that reason, our primary focus has to go to the leading 10 players as the primary competitors for the title.
Is Serena in decline and exactly what does this imply?
The Australian Open favourite Serena Williams' statistics are on the decrease. This is shown by her existing odds of 2.760 *, which is considerably greater than the 1.92 she was offered at this time in 2013 – a shift in suggested possibility from 52.08 % to 36.23 %.
As can be seen in the table below, her consolidated tough court hold/break portion of 125.4 % is well below the 136.6 % she managed in the 2013 period and whilst this makes her still the finest player in the field by a range, she is far less exceptional over her peers than in current years.
Add to the fact that her current record at the Australian Open is extremely bad. Williams has actually not made the final in the previous 4 years, with losses to Ana Ivanovic in 2014, Sloane Stephens in 2013, Ekaterina Makarova in 2012, while she didn't take part in 2011.
The table below shows the hold/break data of the Top 10 in 2104, as well as including the 2 players ranked outside the leading 10 that are priced under 50 in the straight-out markets (prices subject to alter):
|Player||Rank||Odds||2014 Hard Court matches||2014 Hard Court win %||Hard Court service hold %||Hard Court break opponent %||Combined %|
These data reveal that apart from Williams, the WTA field is really level. All 5 of the gamers ranked 2-5 are divided by less than 3 % incorporated hold/break portion, and this is shown in the comparable rates on all, other than Ana Ivanovic.
Sharapova, Halep & Wozniacki.
Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep are competing for 2nd favourite status, with the Russian presently edging matters. Halep had a hard time, to a level, post Wimbledon, with injury niggles avoiding her from carrying out to her absolute best, and it will certainly be fascinating to see how she carries out in the warm-up occasions, which she didn't take too seriously (with simply one victory from 4 occasions) in 2013.
Sharapova 8.350 * will certainly be a big risk however has the tendency to struggle when it comes to Williams. The American has won their last 15 head-to-head clashes in a run, which stretches back to 2004. Fairly exceptionally, Sharapova has actually only won 3 sets in those 15 matches.
Remarkably, Caroline Wozniacki 10.840 *, who is sixth favourite behind Petra Kvitova, boasts much better statistics than all apart from Williams, and after an excellent finish to the 2014 period, is a major competitor and well up to winning her very first Grand Slam.
The Dane recorded 28 wins in 36 matches post-Wimbledon in 2013 and in the last 6 months on hard court, her 75.6 % hold and 45.6 % break portions raised her to a 121.2 % consolidated portion. There is definitely a huge case for bettors to rank Wozniacki as 2nd favourite.
Kvitova, Bouchard & others.
Kvitova 10.690 * likewise performed well in 2014 and was rewarded with a Wimbledon title. Not just this, she managed to lower the quantity of 3 set matches she played and this will certainly be of tremendous advantage to both her physical fitness levels and lowering the difference of a last set shootout.
Eugenie Bouchard 11.410 * was beaten by Kvitova during that Wimbledon final, and made the semi-finals here in 2013. The Canadian prospect, nevertheless, is still looking for consistency and recorded the worst hard court victory percentage, by some range, in the above table. Her 108.9 % consolidated percentage was the worst in the leading 10.
Ana Ivanovic, Agnieszka Radwanska and Angelique Kerber are next in the market, and all have comparable consolidated percentage to most of the leading 10. Their larger rates are mostly due to understandings that they are not able to take on the elite, and with Ivanovic's last final being in 2008, Radwanska just reaching one professional Grand Slam, and Kerber never having done so, those understandings are completely easy to understand.
As pointed out above, Cibulkova reached the final as the 20th seed in 2013. Failure to come near to that accomplishment this year will certainly indicate a huge ranking drop and the Slovak's form motivates little self-confidence that she can prevent this having won only 5 of of the last 16 matches since Wimbledon.
Will injury obstruct Azarenka?
Ranked outside the leading 10 however priced under 50 in the straight-out market is Victoria Azarenka 8.280 *.
She has substantial physical fitness problems and is looking to regain previous form after an injury damaged 2014.
On her peak form, she ‘d be Williams' most significant rival, however given that she made her resurgence in June, she's won only 8 of 15 matches. She lost to the iproving Karolina Pliskova in Brisbane (with a starting price of 1.478). This occasion might be too soon for Azarenka and she might perform much better in the later Grand Slams this year.
The 2015 Australian Open guarantees to be an extremely open occasion and provide a lot of value for bettors. With Williams' current decrease in form, it would not be a big surprise if she failed to win the title, and the data highlights there are a variety of competitors all set to take the prize.