Easy NFL Betting System – Winless Teams and How to Profit.
Let me introduce you to a basic betting system that practically anybody with either Web access to, or a sports paper from the present and previous week, can follow. It will typically provide 2-6 opportunites for earnings each NFL period.
The Idea is this: All of us understand that the point-spread is usually shaded to favour the underdog due to the fact that of the fundamental prejudice in the NFL wagering market is in the direction of the favourite. This prejudice is more noticable when specific circumstances occur and this betting system certainly falls under this classification.
This system depends on just 2 fundamental main conditions. The first is that the team in concern is winless straight-up. They do not always need to be winless versus the spread, just winless in the league standings.
We are just going to look at NFL games in the middle of the season, specifically, in between Weeks 6 and 13. This system is not efficient in the very first 5 weeks of the NFL period when the wagering public is still supporting winless groups. There have actually only been a handful of teams in the history of the league that were still winless after Week 13, and this system has had mixed results in those scenarios.
Exactly what is the ATS record of winless groups in Weeks 6 to 13 since 1994? They are an impressive 55-22 ATS in the previous 13 periods and an ideal 5-0 ATS in 2006!
You are likely to ask yourself: how does such an undoubtedly basic wagering angle remain so successful versus the spread every year? The response lies with the earlier reference in this article to the intrinsic prejudice in the direction of wagering on favourites by the substantial numbers of ‘square' gamblers in North America. In this specific circumstance, it is more noticeable since numerous more individuals have basically ‘quit' on winless groups by Week 6. More action on the favourite and teams that are winless after Week 6 are in reality, and underdog in over 86% of cases – means a somewhat greater line, and an enhanced possibility that the underdog will certainly beat the number.
Another consideration is that teams that are 0-5, 0-6, and so on, are most likely not that bad. You do not lose your very first 6 games by getting a couple of fortunate bounces occasionally. From the 77 circumstances in the previous 13 periods that a winless team was playing in between Week 6 to 13, on just 7 occasions did they have a turnover differential higher than 0 and in over half the cases their per-game TOD average was below -1. Historically, groups with an inadequate season-to-date TOD offer excellent bounce-back capacity, whether they are winless or not.
Right here's the information of this little betting system gem (after including in one Secondary condition as well).
(Notes: ASM represents Average Spread Margin and TDIS % is the portion of teams in the league that have actually been associated with this system at one time or another).
System # 32 Summary
Main Conditions (Foundation).
1) Team is winless SU.
2) Weeks 6-13.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners).
1) Existing Challenger was favoured in their last game.
Home %: 61.5.
DOG %: 94.9.
TDIS %: 56.3.
Leading Teams: CIN(5); SD(5); DET(4); ATL(3).
Overall (Since '02): 34-5 ATS.
2007 Period: 0-0 ATS.
2006 Period: 2-0 ATS.
2005 Period: 1-1 ATS.
2004 Period: 1-0 ATS.
Last 3 Outcomes (Pick in Brackets).
2006 WK6– DEN 13 OAK 3 (OAK +15) W.
2006 WK6– TB 14 CIN 13 (TB +4.5) W.
2005 WK8– HOU 19 CLE 16 (HOU -2) W.