Calipari to the NBA rumors get a kickstart

Two weeks ago Kentucky fans were hyping the dream class turning into a perfect season. That perfect season lasted all of two games before they lost to Michigan State on a neutral floor. Now fans have their goals set on 39-1, but there is about to be a little distraction. CBS is reporting that John Calipari could be offered the New York Knicks job, and that the bidding will start around $8 million with total control.

If history is any predictor of things to come, Calipari will deny that he’s doing anything but staying in Kentucky. After all, he has a recruiting class to land, a team to coach, etc… and he doesn’t need any distractions.  That’s what agents are for. The Kentucky worry will be that even though Calipari has denied any interest, people will be exploring things behind the scenes. It can’t hurt to look, right? If you want to wager on his chances of re-joining the NBA, and you certainly can, you can find NBA betting lines here.

It’s not like college basketball doesn’t have a long line of contracted coaches saying one thing and doing another. Just this past offseason New Mexico head coach Steve Alford signed a ten year extension, and then took the UCLA job a couple of weeks later. Words are one thing. Piles of money are another.

Who knows how this will play out, but at minimum it will be another distraction in Big Blue Nation. Of course, at Kentucky, everything is under the microscope and they’re used to distractions. Back to 39and1.

Which college conferences have been most helped or most hurt by NBA Draft decisions

Once rosters finish sorting themselves we’ll be able to start our team and conference previews, but one thing that is set are the early entries into the NBA draft. This is typically a power conference affair, and this year is no different. Damian Lillard and Will Barton are the only non-BCS conference players expected to be drafted from among those who left school early.

Terrell Stoglin was the late jumper into the draft, but otherwise the names have been settled for a while. How will Stoglin’s – and everyone else’s – departure affect conference strength?

First, a look at 2011-12 conference strength. According to Ken Pomeroy, this was a down season at the top of college basketball. He had the Big Ten as the top rated conference, but their metric was the lowest to lead the nation since his ratings began a decade ago. Here are the top 10:

  1. Big Ten
  2. Big 12
  3. Big East
  4. SEC
  5. ACC
  6. Atlantic 10
  7. Pac 12
  8. Moutain West
  9. Missouri Valley
  10. Conference USA

Here’s how those conferences will be affected by players leaving early for the draft. In the conference previews I will tackle transfers and graduates.

BIG TEN:

Already the best of the power conferences, the Big Ten loses the fewest players. Jared Sullinger (Ohio State, sophomore) will obviously be a big loss. Of the 38 players in this analysis (I removed a few players who won’t be drafted, and left school for reasons other than a chance at the NBA) only three had a higher offensive rating than Sullinger. In Pomeroy’s player of the year rankings, Sullinger was 3rd. He averaged 17.5 points and 9.2 rebounds, and was one of three early entries to average at least 16 and 9. Meyers Leonard (Illinois, sophomore) was the other player lost. That makes two centers out of the Big Ten (and promotes Cody Zeller to the top big in the conference). Leonard isn’t as big of a loss as Sullinger, but only on the conference level. To his team, it’s huge. The 7-0 Leonard easily had the highest offensive rating on the team, and was their best rebounder as well. Could either of these guys be drafted in the high lottery? You can find the betting top 10 here.

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BIG 12:

The Big 12 is taking a big hit. And it would be “worse”, but one of their players will be counting against the SEC. Thomas Robinson (Kansas, junior) is the biggest loss. Robinson finished second in Pomeroy’s national player of the year ratings, and was a monster on the glass. His defensive rebounding rate led the nation. On the season he averaged 17.7 points and 11.9 boards. Baylor loses Perry Jones (sophomore) and Quincy Miller (freshman), which is a ton of talent, though neither player performed as well as others on this list. Both need a polished outside game in the NBA, and neither showed it, but I’m always of the mindset that players will develop more quickly in the pros when there are no limitations on practice time. If you are a guaranteed first rounder, go. Now we’ll wait and see if Miller fits that description. Iowa State loses Royce White (sophomore), who fits into the Baylor mold, of a high risk/reward type player who is unrefined at this stage. Iowa State doesn’t get talents like White very often, and he’ll be missed. Though to be fair, only three early entries had a lower offensive rating. J’Covan Brown (Texas, junior) did everything for the Longhorns this season, including taking 32% of their shots when he was on the floor. And he managed to be very efficient. He might not get drafted, but his impact is huge.

BIG EAST:

Despite ESPN’s constant pimping of the Big East they haven’t been the top rated conference (by Pomeroy) since 2006. This year was no different. And if Syracuse and Pitt can buy their way out a year early, the Big East probably won’t be in the top-3 for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t help that they lose the second most players to the draft (8). Villanova loses Dominic Cheek and Malik Wayns (both juniors). Villanova was a bad team this season, and losing the two players who were No. 1 and 2 in both minutes and offensive rating won’t help. Between the two they managed to take over half the shots when they were on the floor, and somehow maintained high offensive ratings despite terrible 3-point shooting. Dion Waiters (Syracuse, sophomore) was the best player on the Orangemen, and combined with the early entry of Fab Melo (junior) and two other starters to graduation, it will be a reloading year. UConn is the third team to lose multiple players to the draft. Jeremy Lamb (sophomore) and Andre Drummond (freshman) are both gone. Lamb didn’t have the all-world season that was expected, but he was still excellent. Drummond showed flashes of ridiculous athleticism as a freshman and he would have been fun to watch develop. Moe Harkless (St Johns, freshman) was a high volume freshman who occasionally didn’t play like a freshman. The last player is Hollis Thompson (Georgetown, junior) was high volume with a 110+ offensive rating – in other words, he’ll be very hard to replace – which is a theme amongst the Big East early entries.

SEC:

Even without Kentucky, the SEC loses a ton of talent. Yes, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Terrance Jones and Marquis Teague are gone, but that’s been covered to death. It’s huge. It was expected. Vanderbilt loses John Jenkins (junior) who played the most minutes of any Commodore and had an insane offensive rating over 126. Sorry, Vanderbilt. Florida also loses their best player in Bradley Beal (freshman). As the season wore on he became more comfortable taking over games, and would have been a candidate for 1st team All-American had he returned. Arnett Moultrie (Mississippi State, junior) was the other huge loss. He averaged a double-double, but didn’t get the press of Renard Sidney (junior) for all the right reasons. Justin Hamilton (LSU, junior) is gone, and not many will notice. Tony Mitchell (Alabama, junior) is gone too, but it would have happened one way or another. Might be addition by subtraction. And then Khris Middleton (Texas A&M, junior) is gone before ever stepping foot in the SEC. The Aggies were surprisingly bad this year, though not for lack of Middleton jacking shots. Unfortunately, not many went in.

ACC:

The ACC loses five players, and three of them come from the Tarheels. Harrison Barnes (sophomore) was the player everyone liked to make fun of in order to defend their own silly expectations for him created two years earlier. Though to be fair to the naysayers, he didn’t develop much – if at all – as a sophomore. Kendall Marshall (sophomore) had his season end prematurely, but he proved he could make shots when no one guarded him, and his assist rate was still the third best in the nation. And John Henson (junior) showed an offensive refinement that had been missing. His offensive rating had been dismal his first two years, but he improved it to a very respectable 107.0 this season. Austin Rivers (Duke, freshman) showed flashes of brilliance in between bouts of freshmanitis. He’ll be missed mostly due to him being the only Duke player capable of creating his own shot. And finally, Terrell Stoglin (Maryland, sophomore) discovered he was being suspended for next season and went ahead and made the jump at the last minute. His impact is huge. Only two players in the nation took a higher percentage of shots when they were on the floor, and Stoglin managed to be very efficient (offensive rating 110+). See John Jenkins comment above.

PAC 12:

Washington was the big loser in the early entry game, losing both Terrence Ross (sophomore) and Tony Wroten (freshman). They managed 56% of the shots when they were on the floor, and Ross did so with a high efficiency. Wroten was the typical high-volume low-efficiency freshman. Oregon State loses Jared Cunningham (junior) who led the team in everything. He’s the classic player who will be missed at the conference level, but his loss at the team level could be devastating. The same can’t be said for Reeves Nelson (UCLA, junior) who got kicked off the team for being a world class asshat.

CONFERENCE USA:

The lone departure from C-USA was Memphis star Will Barton (sophomore). Barton averaged 18 and 8, and played more minutes than all but one player in the conference. He finished 5th in Pomeroy’s national player of the year ratings.

ATLANTIC 10, MOUNTAIN WEST, MISSOURI VALLEY:

No losses.

How Well Did The Computers Predict The Field?

While I no longer have the time to do regular blogging, I’d like to try to keep these annual “How well did the computers predict the field?” posts going for the sake of historical data.

The first 2018 data: the root squared mean difference between each team’s seed and where the teams would be if ranked strictly by the rating systems (1-11 seeds only). Again I am measuring RPI, BPI Strength of Record (resume strength) and Pomeroy (pure team strength):

Note that all of these numbers are as of Monday morning (i.e. they include all of the results up through Selection Sunday but do not include any post-Selection Sunday tournaments).

Average Rating Error:
2.22 – Pomeroy
2.25 – BPI SOR
2.96 – RPI

RPI


Ten highest rated teams to miss the Tournament (NIT seed given):

33. Middle Tennessee (3)
34. USC (1)
38. Louisville (2)
39. Western Kentucky (4)
40. Saint Mary’s (1)
50. Boise State (4)
52. Temple (5)
55. Northeastern (-)
56. Nebraska (5)
58. Marquette (2)

Ten lowest rated teams to earn an at-large (seed given):
66. Arizona St (11)
64. North Carolina St (9)
61. Virginia Tech (8)
54. Florida St (9)
53. Kansas St (9)
51. Texas (10)
49. Oklahoma (10)
46. Florida (6)
45. Syracuse (11)
44. Creighton (8)

  BPI Strength of Record


Ten highest rated teams to miss the Tournament (NIT seed given):

31. Nebraska (5)
41. Marquette (2)
42. Louisville (2)
43. Oklahoma State (2)
44. Baylor (1)
48. Middle Tennessee (3)
50. Saint Mary’s (1)
52. Mississippi State (4)
53. Notre Dame (1)
55. Maryland (-)

Ten lowest rated teams to earn an at-large (seed given):
69. Arizona State (11)
54. UCLA (11)
49. Missouri (8)
47. Syracuse (11)
40. Oklahoma (10)
39. Florida State (9)
38. North Carolina St (9)
37. Nevada (7)
36. Butler (10)
35. Creighton (8)

Pomeroy


Ten highest rated teams to miss the Tournament (NIT seed given):

28. Saint Mary’s (1)
29. Penn State (4)
31. Notre Dame (1)
33. Louisville (2)
34. Baylor (1)
40. USC (1)
46. Maryland (-)
52. Middle Tennessee (3)
53. Marquette (2)
56. Oklahoma St (2)

Ten lowest rated teams to earn an at-large (seed given):
69. St. Bonaventure (11)
63. Providence (10)
54. Syracuse (11)
51. Alabama (9)
49. Rhode Island (7)
48. UCLA (11)
47. Oklahoma (10)
45. Arizona St (11)
44. Kansas St (9)
42. NC State (9)

——————————–

Does The RPI Matter As Much As It Used To?
One of the fascinating statistical quirks this year is that by pure computer numbers, the Pomeroy ratings were actually a slightly better predictor of NCAA Tournament seed than the RPI or the BPI. Last year, the BPI was the strongest.

Another piece of evidence for raw RPIs mattering less than they used to is which teams got left out. In the decade-or-so that I’ve been tracking this data, there have been plenty of RPI Top 40 teams to get left out, but only mid-majors. This year was the first time I tracked an RPI Top 40 major conference team getting left out, and in fact this year there were two – USC and Louisville (more on them in a moment). At the same time, while RPI 60+ teams have gotten in before (there’s usually been 1 or 2 per year since the bracket expanded to 68), having two of them earn single-digit seeds is interesting. And Oklahoma State was on the bubble with an RPI of 88, which would have blown away the all-time record for worst RPI to ever earn an at-large bid (72, by Syracuse in 2016).

That said, while this is all a minor improvement, it’s not a major one. The fact is that raw RPI ratings have never really been the way that RPI dominates the Selection process. Nobody in the last decade or two would ever argue that an RPI #30 team needs to be ahead of an RPI #40 team for that reason alone – they’d argue it using other metrics, such as “Record vs RPI Top 50”. The problem with those metrics was that they have a huge major conference bias, since mid-majors can very rarely get RPI Top 50 teams on their home court. To fix this, the NCAA made a big show this year of switching to a quadrant system which rewards playing on the road.

This all sounds great! Unfortunately, it didn’t quite go to plan…

“Quadrants? What are quadrants?”

What Is The Point Of Quadrants, Exactly?
After the NCAA made a big deal of the quadrant system this offseason, it’s remarkable how little they ever actually came up yesterday. I watched the entire CBS/TNT Selection Show, and then a couple hours of ESPN bracket analysis, and I think I heard the phrase “tier” or “quadrant” come up just two or three times total.

To demonstrate the problem of ignoring one’s own metrics, let’s take the instructive case of Syracuse vs Middle Tennessee:

Record vs RPI Top 100:
8-11 Syracuse
4-6 Middle Tennessee

Record vs RPI Tiers 1+2:
7-11 Syracuse
5-4 Middle Tennessee

By the traditional “Record vs RPI Top 100” metric, it looks like Syracuse and Middle Tennessee both won about 40% of their games vs decent opponents, and thus we can give Syracuse the tiebreak because they had the higher RPI win (RPI #11 Clemson). But the quadrant/tier system significantly improves Middle Tennessee’s numbers, and recognizes that they played a lot more on the road than Syracuse. In fact, Middle Tennessee led all of Division I with 12 road victories (a 12-1 record), while Syracuse went just 4-6 in true road games.

Of course, if we want to really use “analytics”, we can abandon the crappy RPI metrics and just use Pomeroy’s tier system:

Record vs KenPom Tier A:
3-8 Syracuse
3-3 Middle Tennessee

Once we look at non-RPI metrics, we recognize that in fact Syracuse’s best win wasn’t over Clemson at all (since it came at home), but on the road at Louisville. Suddenly, a Syracuse team which played all season in the ACC somehow ended up with its most impressive win coming over an NIT team? Woof. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee’s victory at Murray State rates really strong (not as strong as Syracuse’s best win, but close, despite far fewer chances against elite opponents).

You can apply this same analysis to other quirky at-large teams. Those two RPI Top 40 major conference teams that got left out? USC was left out because they had literally zero RPI Top 25 wins. Louisville went an ungodly 0-11 vs the RPI Top 50. These are all traditional, RPI-heavy reasons why teams got left out. The fact that Louisville’s record vs quality opponents looks different by the better metrics (a 4-10 record vs KenPom Tier A opponents, which is similar to other major conference bubble teams) didn’t matter, because the Selection Committee is still stuck in RPI-based metrics.

When The RPI Does And Does Not Matter Is Instructive
In terms of pure strength of record, it’s clear that the best resume left out was Nebraska. It was noted by quite a few analytics folks this year that the RPI was just way down on the Big Ten compared to better metrics. The league was certainly down, but not as much as the RPI thought it was. So it’s not a surprise that Nebraska actually showed up as the strongest resume to get left out of the field via BPI despite clearly not even being a serious bubble team on Selection Sunday (only earning a 5 seed in the NIT). Heck, even Maryland was one of the ten best resumes left out according to BPI, and they couldn’t even get into the NIT.

Yet interestingly, the glamor teams in the Big Ten didn’t suffer this same fate. Michigan State was 14th in RPI and just 3-4 vs the RPI Tier 1 (a worse RPI Tier 1 record than San Diego State, who needed an auto bid to make the field), yet they still got a 3 seed. Ohio State and Purdue also were a seed line or two higher than their RPI resumes really should have put them (since the RPI really viewed the Big Ten as basically a strong mid-major conference this season). The Selection Committee still ranked those teams highly because they are sexy #brands with a couple of sexy wins on national television. The RPI data got ignored when it was convenient.

Thinking, Fast And Slow
The inconsistent use of RPI and the total abandonment of the very RPI quadrant system that the NCAA created this season right when it was convenient is a reminder that, fundamentally, the Selection process is irrational.

By that phrase, I don’t mean that in the sense of “LOL what a bunch of morons!” Everybody in that Selection Committee room is a reasonably intelligent and accomplished adult. What I mean is the basic concept for the classic book “Thinking, Fast And Slow”, by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman. Summarizing decades of fascinating psychological research, Kahneman points out that human thought can be fundamentally separated into two categories: System 1 (fast, automatic, stereotypic, unconscious) and System 2 (slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating).

What the research shows is that pure rational thought is actually very difficult and emotionally taxing, so much so that the body reacts to it very similarly to how it reacts to a difficult physical exercise workout. It’s why after taking difficult tests in school you often feel physically exhausted despite not leaving your chair for three hours. It’s just hard damn work. Also, it takes a long time to solve even the most simple, linear problem, and we simply could not make it through life intricately breaking down each decision we make. And thus most of our decisions in life are System 1. A complex multi-variable problem like picking out an apartment (price, square footage, view, neighborhood, number of rooms, furniture, kitchen, amenities, parking, etc) will end up just coming down to a snap judgment – we all just invent a post-hoc narrative to explain what was fundamentally an emotional and irrational decision.

The issue with NCAA Tournament selection is that the process is actually monumentally complicated. We are supposed to judge dozens of different teams (and their opponents) by winning percentage, strength of schedule, strength of record, best wins, best records vs arbitrary quadrants, multiple team strength metrics, road warriors, conference titles, injured and suspended players, and more. As I wrote in 2014 when I (accurately) predicted how college football playoff selection would play out, it’s simply an impossible problem to tackle. If I ask you to solve a series of math problems like 4y + 8 = 28 then I presume that most of my readers could solve that, even if it would get exhausting after a while, but those are linear problems. To solve NCAA Tournament selection is so complex that even a powerful computer model cannot really make sense of it (the BPI tournament odds that ESPN kept shoving down our throats in February and early March were a constant source of mirth and amusement).

So what happens when you have a problem too complex to solve? Daniel Kahneman explains that what we do is to reflexively solve the problem using System 1 thinking: We intuitively come to an answer, and then grasp for the justification later. So the Selection Committee makes snap mental judgments, driven heavily by subconscious stereotyping and narratives, and then decides later which metrics justify the decisions that they already wanted to make.

And this is why the mid-majors like Middle Tennessee will simply always lose those bubble battles with 8-10 Big 12 or 9-9 ACC teams. Subconsciously, the people on that Selection Committee simply will not understand that a road game at Murray State is equivalent to a home game vs a Top 25 team. It just doesn’t mentally compute. When Selection Chair Bruce Rasmussen said that Middle Tennessee went out and scheduled good teams “but just didn’t beat any of them”, he apparently wasn’t aware that they actually won their 2nd toughest non-conference game. He didn’t realize that the road game at Murray State (which they won by 5) was a tougher opponent than the neutral court game vs USC (which they lost by 5).

In the end, System 1 thinking is always going to dominate in the Selection room. Forcing new quadrant metrics on them won’t change anything, because fundamentally these are snap, irrational judgments. The quadrants will only get referenced when they are convenient to get referenced – they won’t drive decisions. The only way to adjust the results of System 1 thinking is to get newer, younger, analytically-savvy people in the room who fundamentally, subconsciously, emotionally understand how difficult a road game is vs a decent mid-major. Then and only then will anything change.

02/21: Zion Williamson's knee injury was not as bad as initially feared, but it nevertheless ignited a national debate

Zion Williamson’s shoe-busting spectacle under a minute to the UNC game was the storm of content production for discourse about Duke Zion, the amateurism model and the NBA. However, Norlander and Parrish do their best get and to cut through the obviousness. But also: Parrish got to a Twitter spat with Trae Young (23:00)! The men also get into Norlander’s strong story about LSU success despite losing a player to murder in the preseason (35:45) and wrap with a preview of six large games (42:05): Virginia-Louisville; Tennessee-LSU; Florida State-UNC; Duke-Syracuse; Kansas-Texas Tech; and Michigan State-Michigan. 

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02/24: Texas Tech obliterates Kansas; Duke’s dandy without Zion; Ole Miss players take a knee during the national anthem

This article first appeared here https://traffic.megaphone.fm/CBS3571149310.mp3

Another rewarding, and interesting, weekend of college basketball has GP and Norlander opening with Texas Tech’s dominant revenge win over Kansas. From there, the guys get to Duke-Syracuse (7:25), which includes another edition of Trivia Time. Early Saturday, LSU won in overtime at home vs. Tennessee (20:00), so the guys are not short of topics to touch on there. Sunday’s biggest result was Michigan State beating Michigan on the road (28:30), Sparty now asserting itself once more as the best team in the Big Ten. In closing, Parrish waxes on the public protest made by Ole Miss players Saturday (38:00) in response to pro-confederacy demonstrations made on Mississippi’s campus on Saturday. 

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Bracketology Seed List For Sunday, February 24, 2019

This article first appeared here https://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2019/2/24/18233145/bracketology-college-basketball-seed-list-duke-virginia-gonzaga-kentucky

There’s a new No. 1 seed after Saturday’s busy lineup. We also have a couple mid-major leagues drop from the multi-bid ranks.

Notes:

  • Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses.
  • Arrows indicate movement up or down the seed list (down to the spot on the seed list). This is relative to Friday’s SB Nation post.
  • New entrants are marked with an asterisk.
  • For at-large candidates only, the numbers in parentheses after the team’s name are as follows: record vs. D1 opposition/record in Group 1 and Group 2 games/record in Group 1 games only. This information reflects NET data as of Sunday, Feb. 24. I pulled the quality win info from WarrenNolan.com’s selection sheets.

No. 1 Seeds

(1) Duke Blue Devils (ACC) (24-3/15/8) – WASHINGTON, D.C. – Columbia 1
(2) Virginia Cavaliers (24-2/14/9) – LOUISVILLE – Columbus 1
(↑3) Gonzaga Bulldogs (WCC) (27-2/11/4) – ANAHEIM – Salt Lake City 1
(↑4) Kentucky Wildcats (23-4/14/9) – KANSAS CITY – Columbus 2

With Tennessee having lost two of three, the Vols drop down to the two line, with Kentucky rising up to the fourth spot overall after their resounding 27-point win over Auburn—their third victory in succession.

No. 2 Seeds

(↑5) Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten) (24-3/15/7) – LOUISVILLE – Des Moines 1
(6) North Carolina Tar Heels (22-5/12/7) – KANSAS CITY – Columbia 2
(↓7) Tennessee Volunteers (23-3/10/5) – WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jacksonville 1
(8) Michigan State Spartans (22-5/13/10) – ANAHEIM – Des Moines 2

Michigan jumps into the top spot on line No. 2, but will they stay there? This afternoon, the Wolverines host Michigan State (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS) in the first of two highly-anticipated late season matchups.

No. 3 Seeds

(↑9) Houston Cougars (American) (26-1/14/4) – ANAHEIM – Tulsa 1
(↑10) LSU Tigers (SEC) (22-5/14/7) – WASHINGTON, D.C. – Tulsa 2
(11) Marquette Golden Eagles (Big East) (23-4/13/8) – LOUISVILLE – Hartford 1
(↓12) Kansas Jayhawks (20-7/13/9) – KANSAS CITY – Salt Lake City 2

Houston now heads up the No. 3 seed line, thanks in part to the beating Kansas suffered in Lubbock last night. LSU, meanwhile, jumps up to from the four line.

With four Big Ten teams and trios of ACC, Big 12, and SEC squads, I had to do some major shuffling of seed lines three and four to get the four regions relatively balanced.

No. 4 Seeds

(↓13) Purdue Boilermakers (20-7/14/8) – KANSAS CITY – Jacksonville 2
(14) Kansas State Wildcats (Big 12) (21-6/10/6) – LOUISVILLE – Hartford 2
(↑15) Wisconsin Badgers (19-8/11/7) – WASHINGTON, D.C. – San José 1
(↑16) Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-5/12/5) – ANAHEIM – San José 2

Texas Tech returns to the top 16 following its demolition of Kansas, while Purdue drops following an unconvincing performance at Nebraska. The Boilermakers have won their last two road games by a total of five points—with both victories coming against teams that have struggled mightily in Big Ten play.

No. 5 Seeds

(↓17) Florida State Seminoles (21-6/10/5)
(↓18) Maryland Terrapins (21-7/12/6)
(↓19) Nevada Wolf Pack (MW) (25-2/8/0)
(↑20) Iowa Hawkeyes (21-6/11/4)

Even though Iowa needed OT to get past Indiana on Friday night, the Hawkeyes replace Iowa State on the five line following the Cyclones’ second loss of the season to TCU.

No. 6 Seeds

(↑21) Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-7/12/7)
(↑22) Virginia Tech Hokies (21-6/9/3)
(23) Cincinnati Bearcats (22-4/7/4)
(↓24) Iowa State Cyclones (19-8/8/5)

No. 7 Seeds

(25) Washington Huskies (Pac-12) (22-5/6/1)
(26) Villanova Wildcats (20-7/12/3)
(↑27) Buffalo Bulls (MAC) (23-3/6/2)
(↑28) Wofford Terriers (SoCon) (21-4/7/3)

With Bowling Green losing to the Ohio on Friday, Buffalo is again the lone MAC team in the field.

No. 8 Seeds

(↓29) Baylor Bears (18-9/11/4)
(↓30) Louisville Cardinals (18-10/8/4)
(↓31) Syracuse Orange (18-9/8/3)
(↑32) St. John’s Red Storm (20-8/10/6)

St. John’s earned a bit of breathing room with a home victory over Seton Hall, while Syracuse’s loss to Duke didn’t hurt the Orange’s prospects all that much. Louisville, however, has slid from a possible protected seed to the middle of the bracket thanks to four losses in their last five.

No. 9 Seeds

(↑33) Mississippi Rebels (19-8/7/4)
(↓34) Auburn Tigers (17-9/9/2)
(↑35) VCU Rams (A 10) (21-6/5/3)
(↑36) Oklahoma Sooners (17-10/10/3)

Auburn’s blowout loss at Kentucky cost it some positioning, while VCU’s continued run of excellence in a poor Atlantic 10 and Oklahoma’s well-earned split of its season series with Texas provided both a nice seeding boost.

No. 10 Seeds

(↓37) Texas Longhorns (15-12/8/4)
(↑38) Florida Gators (16-11/7/2)
(↓39) Ohio State Buckeyes (17-10/7/4)
(↑40) TCU Horned Frogs (18-9/7/2)

Speaking of the Longhorns, Kerwin Roach II’s indefinite suspension for a violation of team rules will be a storyline to watch for the next few weeks. While Texas rallied to make it a game in Norman yesterday, the ‘Horns didn’t look all that great without their leading scorer. Florida, meanwhile, avoided disaster at home against Missouri yesterday. On the other hand, Ohio State was swept by Maryland.

By completing a season sweep of Iowa State, TCU really improved its positioning and ranks among Saturday’s biggest bubble winners.

No. 11 Seeds

(↑41) Lipscomb Bisons (ASUN) (19-6/3/2)
(42) Arizona State Sun Devils (18-8/8/4)
(↓43) Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-10/8/3)
(↑44) N.C. State Wolfpack (18-8/7/1)

Lipscomb is now the lone Atlantic Sun team in the field, as Liberty fell at North Florida. There’s a good chance the NET will play a role in breaking a tie at the top of the conference, considering how the conference used RPI in the past.

Sunday is going to be a crucial day for the 11 and 12 seed group, as UCF (SMU, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN), Minnesota (at Rutgers, 6:30 p.m. ET, BTN), N.C. State (Wake Forest, 6 p.m. ET, ESPNU), and Arizona State (California, 6 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network) are all in action.

No. 12 Seeds

(45) UCF Knights (19-5/6/0)
(↓46 – First Four) Seton Hall Pirates (16-11/10/3)
(47- First Four) Alabama Crimson Tide (16-11/9/2)
(48) Belmont Bruins (OVC) (22-4/5/2)
(*49 – First Four) Temple Owls (20-7/7/2)
(↓50 – First Four) Utah State Aggies (21-6/3/1)

Alabama returns after beating Vanderbilt handily, though the failings of others is more responsible for Crimson Tide’s return. Temple is also back, thanks to a home win over Tulsa Golden Hurricanes that avenged their worst loss of conference play. Seton Hall dug its hole just a bit deeper with its second loss of the week. Utah State hangs in, with an anticipated visit from Nevada on tap next Saturday.

First Four Out (NIT No. 1 Seeds)

(↑69) Butler Bulldogs (15-12/7/2)
(↑70) Clemson Tigers (16-11/4/1)
(↑71) Georgetown Hoyas (16-11/7/3)
(↑72) Furman Paladins (19-6/4/1)

Next Five Out

(↑73) Saint Mary’s Gaels (19-10/3/1)
(↑74) Dayton Flyers (18-9/2/2)
(↑75) Davidson Wildcats (19-7/4/0)
(↓76) Liberty Flames (20-6/2/1)
(↓77) Murray State Racers (21-4/1/0)

It was another rough day for teams on the outside looking in, something you probably could have surmised based on the presence of so many mid-majors and the fact that Georgetown and Furman both moved up slightly after losses. It’s just an exceptionally thin bubble at this point.

No. 13 Seeds

(↓51) New Mexico State Aggies (WAC)
(↓52) Yale Bulldogs (Ivy)
(53) Old Dominion Monarchs (C-USA)
(54) Vermont Catamounts (America East)

No. 14 Seeds

(↓55) Hofstra Pride (CAA)
(↑56) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (Summit)
(↑57) UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West)
(↓58) Radford Highlanders (Big South)

No. 15 Seeds

(59) Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)
(*60) Texas State Bobcats (Sun Belt)
(↓61) Loyola Chicago Ramblers (MVC)
(*62) Wright State Raiders (Horizon)

No. 16 Seeds

(63) Bucknell Bison (Patriot)
(64) Sam Houston State Bearkats (Southland)
(65 – First Four) Prairie View A&M Panthers (SWAC)
(66 – First Four) Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC)
(67 – First Four) St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash (NEC)
(68 – First Four) Canisius Golden Griffins (MAAC)

Conference Ranking With Seeds

Note: Auto bid holders are denoted by asterisks.

ACC (8): 1. Duke*, 1. Virginia, 2. North Carolina, 5. Florida State, 6. Virginia Tech, 8. Louisville, 8. Syracuse, 11. N.C. State
Big 12 (8): 3. Kansas, 4. Kansas State*, 4. Texas Tech, 6. Iowa State, 8. Baylor, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Texas, 10. TCU
Big Ten (8): 2. Michigan*, 2. Michigan State, 4. Purdue, 4. Wisconsin, 5. Maryland, 5. Iowa, 10. Ohio State, 11. Minnesota
SEC (8): 1. Kentucky, 2. Tennessee, 3. LSU*, 6. Mississippi State, 9. Mississippi, 9. Auburn, 10. Florida, 12. Alabama (First Four)
American Athletic (4): 3. Houston*, 6. Cincinnati, 12. UCF, 12. Temple (First Four)
Big East (4): 3. Marquette*, 7 Villanova, 8. St. John’s, 12. Seton Hall (First Four)
MW (2): 4. Nevada*, 12. Utah State (First Four)
Pac-12 (2): 7. Washington*, 11. Arizona State

Auto Bid Selection Procedures

Now that we are three weeks away from Selection Sunday, when necessarily and applicable, I’m using each conference’s tiebreaker procedures to determine auto bid holders.

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Conference Tournament Central 2019

The Big Ten Tournament won’t be a week early this year!

Your one stop shop for all 32 conference tournament brackets, together with matchup and scores and TV info.

Ahead seasons: 2018 2017 2016 2015

All TV information courtesy of the conference’s official sites or Matt’s College Sports on TV website . Program and bracket links will go when they’re official, such as seeds and teams.

Daily Chronological Program

After action starts on March 4, 2019 this section will be populated.

America East

March 9, 12, and 16: Greater seeds host (Schedule)
2018 Champion: UMBC Retrievers

The finisher won’t qualify.

Quarterfinals (Sat., March 9)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 7 at No. 2, 7 or 2 p.m.
Game 2: No. 6 at No. 3, 7 or 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 8 at No. 1, 2 or 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 5 at No. 4, 7 or 2 p.m.

Semifinals (Tue., March 12)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Teams are reseeded.

Game 5: No. 4 in No. 1
Game 6: No. 3 in No. 2

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 7: No. 2 in No. 1, 11 a.m. (ESPN2)

American Athletic

March 14-17: Memphis, Tenn..

ESPNU will broadcast all four games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 1 p.m.
Game 2: No. 12 vs. No. 5, approx. 3:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 vs. No. 7, 8 p.m.
vNo.

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)

ESPN2 will broadcast both games.

Game 11: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner, 3:15 p.m. (ESPN)

2018 Champion: Davidson Wildcats

First Round (Wed., March 13)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 13 vs. No. 12, 6 p.m.
Game 2: No. 14 vs. No. 11, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Second Round (Thu., March 14)

NBCSN will broadcast all four games.

NBCSN will broadcast all four games.

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 1 Rhode Island, 12 p.m.

CBSSN will broadcast both games.

March 12-16: Charlotte, N.C. (Bracket)

Raycom will broadcast all three games in ACC markets.

Game 1: No. 13 vs. No. 12, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 2: No. 15 vs. No. 10, approx. 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 3: No. 14 vs. No. 11, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)

Second Round (Wed., March 13)

Raycom will broadcast all three games in ACC markets.

Game 4: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 12 p.m. (ESPN)

ESPN will broadcast all four games. Raycom will broadcast all four games in ACC markets.

ESPN or ESPN2 will broadcast both games. Raycom will broadcast both games.

Game 14: Game 12 Winner vs. Game 13 Winner, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN/Raycom)

ASUN

March 4, 7, and 10: Greater seeds host (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Lipscomb Bison

The North Alabama Lions, in their season, won’t participate.

Quarterfinals (Mon., March 4)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 8 at No. 1, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 at No. 4, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 at No. 3, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 7 at No. 2, 7 p.m.

Semifinals (Thu., March 7)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 5: No. 8/5/4 in No. 1/4/5, 7 p.m.
Game 6: No. 7/6/3 in No. 2/3/6, 7 p.m.

Championship (Sun., March 10)

Game 7: Lowest-remaining seed in Highest-remaining seed, 3 p.m. (ESPN)

Big 12

March 13-16: Kansas City, Mo.. (Bracket)

ESPNU will broadcast both games.

ESPN2 will broadcast all four games.

ESPN or ESPN2 will broadcast both games.

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, 7 p.m.

March 13-16: New York (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Villanova Wildcats

First Round (Wed., March 13)

FS1 will broadcast both games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 7 p.m.

FS1 will broadcast all four games.

Game 4: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 2:30 p.m.
Game 5: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, 7 p.m.
Game 6: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

FS1 will broadcast both games.

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, 6:30 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, approx. 9 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 6:30 p.m. (Fox)

Big Sky

2018 Champion: Montana Grizzlies

First Round (Wed., March 13)

Pluto.tv will flow all 3 games.

Eleven Sports will broadcast all four games. Pluto.tv will flow all four games.

Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, two p.m.
Game 5: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 4:30 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, 7:30 p.m.
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 10 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

Eleven Sports will broadcast both games. Pluto.tv will flow both games.

March 5: Greater seeds host (Bracket)
March 7-8: No. 1 seed
March 10: Highest remaining seed hosts
2018 Champion: Radford Highlanders

The finisher won’t qualify.

ESPN3 will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 9 in No. 8, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 10 in No. 7, 7 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 7)

ESPN3 will flow all four games.

Game 4: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 2:30 p.m.
Game 5: Game 1 Winner in No. 1, 6 p.m.
Game 6: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 8)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 9: Lowest-remaining seed in Highest-remaining seed, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Big Ten

(Bracket)
2018 Champion: Michigan Wolverines

First Round (Wed., March 13)

BTN will broadcast both games.

Game 2: No. 14 vs. No. 11, approx. 9 p.m.

Second Round (Thu., March 14)

BTN will broadcast all four games.

Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 5, approx. 3 p.m.
Game 5: No. 10 vs. No. 7, 7 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 6, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Fri., March 15)

BTN will broadcast all four games.

CBS will broadcast both games.

Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 1 p.m.

Game 13: Game 11 Winner vs. Game 12 Winner, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

March 14-16: Anaheim, Calif.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Cal State Fullerton Titans

The finisher won’t qualify.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

ESPN3 will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 8 vs. No. 1, 3 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 5:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 vs. No. 3, 9 p.m.
Game 4: No. 7 vs. No. 2, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

Teams are reseeded.

Game 5 No. 4 vs. No. 1, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
Game 6: No. 3 vs. No. 2, approx. 12 a.m. 3/16 (ESPNU)

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 12 a.m. 3/17 (ESPN2)

CAA

March 9-12: North Charleston, S.C. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: College of Charleston Cougars

First Round (Sat., March 9)

CAA.tv will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 4 p.m.
Game 2: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 6:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Sun., March 10)

CAA.tv will flow all four games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 12 p.m.
Game 4: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 2:30 p.m.
Game 5: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, 6 p.m.
Game 6: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Mon., March 11)

CBSSN will broadcast both games.

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, 6 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Championship (Tue., March 12)

Game 9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 7 p.m. (CBSSN)

C-USA

March 13-16: Frisco, Texas (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Marshall Thundering Herd

The 13th- and 14th-place finishers won’t qualify.

First Round (Wed., March 13)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 12 vs. No. 5 UTSA, 7:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 9:30 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 vs. No. 6, approx. 10 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 7 p.m. (Stadium)
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 4, 7:30 p.m. (Arena on Facebook Live)
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 2, approx. 9:30 p.m. (Arena )
Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 10 p.m. (Arena on Facebook Live)

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

CBSSN will broadcast both games.

Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 1:30 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, approx. 4 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 11: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner, 8:30 p.m. (CBSSN)

Horizon

March 5-6: Campus websites (Bracket)
March 11-12: Detroit, Mich..
2018 Champion: Wright State Raiders

The mid – and 10th-place finishers won’t qualify.

Quarterfinals (Tue., March 5)

ESPN+ will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 7 at No. 2, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 8 in No. 1, 7 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Wed., March 6)

ESPN+ will flow both games.

Game 3: No. 6 at No. 3, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 5 at No. 4 7 p.m.

Semifinals (Mon., March 11)

ESPNU will broadcast both games.

Game 5: Game 2 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, 7 p.m.
Game 6: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Championship (Tue., March 12)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 7 p.m. (ESPN/2)

Ivy

March 16-17: New Haven, Conn.. (Schedule)
2018 Champion: Penn Quakers

The fifth- through eighth-place finishers won’t qualify.

Semifinals (Sat., March 16)

ESPNU will broadcast both games.

Game 1: No. 4 vs. No. 1, 12:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 3 vs. No. 2, approx. 3 p.m.

Championship (Sun., March 17)

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)

MAAC

March 7-11: Albany, N.Y. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Iona Gaels

First Round (Thu., March 7)

ESPN3 will flow all 3 games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 5, 8 p.m.
Game 2: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 7:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 11 vs. No. 6, approx. 10 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Fri., March 8)

ESPN3 will flow both games.

Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 7 p.m.
Game 5: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Sat., March 9)

ESPN3 will flow both games.

Game 6: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 3, 7 p.m.
Game 7: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Sun., March 10)

Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner, 6 p.m. (ESPN3)
Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, approx. 8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Championship (Mon., March 11)

Game 10: Game 8 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN/2)

MAC

March 11: Greater seeds host (Bracket)
March 14-16: Cleveland, Ohio
2018 Champion: Buffalo Bulls

First Round (Mon., March 11)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 9 in No. 8, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 12 in No. 5, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 in No. 7, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 in No. 6, 7 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 12 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 4, approx. 2:30 p.m.
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 2, 6:30 p.m.
Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 9 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 6:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
Game 10: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, approx. 9 p.m. (Fox College Sports Atlantic/FS Move )

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 11: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

MEAC

March 11-16: Norfolk, Va.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: N.C. Central Eagles

The Florida A&M Rattlers are ineligible for the postseason and won’t participate.

Notice: Game numbering also has the women’s tournament.

First Round (Mon., March 11)

Game 3: No. 11 vs. No. 6, 6 p.m. (FloHoops.com ($))

First Round (Tue, March 12)

FloHoops.com ($) will flow both games.

Game 6: No. 9 vs. No. 6, 8 p.m.
Game 7: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Wed., March 13)

FloHoops.com ($) will flow both games.

Game 10: Game 6 Winner vs. No. 1, 6 p.m.
Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs. No. 2, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

FloHoops.com ($) will flow both games.

Game 14: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 3, 6 p.m.
Game 15: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

FloHoops.com ($) will flow both games.

Game 18: Game 10 Winner vs. Game 15 Winner, 6 p.m.
Game 19: Game 11 Winner vs. Game 14 Winner, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 20: Game 18 Winner vs. Game 19 Winner, 1 p.m. (ESPN2)

MVC

March 7-10: St. Louis, Mo.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Loyola Chicago Ramblers

First Round (Thu., March 7)

MVC TV will broadcast both games. ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 7 p.m. (FS Midwest/NBCS Chicago Plus)
Game 2: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 9:30 p.m. (FS Midwest Plus/NBCS Chicago Plus)

Quarterfinals (Fri., March 8)

MVC TV will broadcast all four games. ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 1 p.m. (FS Midwest/NBCS Chicago Plus)
Game 4: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 3:30 p.m. (FS Midwest/NBCS Chicago Plus)
Game 5: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, 7 p.m. (FS Midwest)
Game 6: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 9:30 p.m. (FS Midwest)

Semifinals (Sat., March 9)

CBSSN will broadcast both games.

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, 3:30 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, approx. 6 p.m.

Championship (Sun., March 10)

Game 9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 2 p.m. (CBS)

MW

March 13-16: Las Vegas, Nev.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: San Diego State Aztecs

First Round (Wed., March 13)

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, two p.m. (Stadium on Facebook Live)
Game 2: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 4:30 p.m. (Arena on Facebook Live)
Game 3: No. 11 vs. No. 6, approx. 7 p.m. (Arena on Facebook Live)

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

CBSSN will broadcast all four games.

Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 3 p.m.
Game 5: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 5:30 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, 9 p.m.
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

CBSSN will broadcast both games.

Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner, 9 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 10: Game 8 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner, 6 p.m. (CBS)

NEC

March 6, 9, and 12: Greater seeds host (Bracket)
2018 Champion: LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds

The mid – and 10th-place finishers won’t qualify.

Quarterfinals (Wed., March 6)

NEC Front Row will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 8 in No. 1
Game 2: No. 7 at No. 2
Game 3: No. 6 at No. 3
Game 4: No. 5 at No. 4

Semifinals (Sat., March 9)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Teams are reseeded.

Game 5: No. 4 in No. 1, 12 p.m.
Game 6: No. 3 in No. 2, two p.m.

Championship (Tue., March 12)

Game 7: Lowest-remaining seed in Highest-remaining seed, 7 p.m. (ESPN/2)

OVC

March 6-9: Evansville, Ind.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Murray State Racers

The finishers won’t qualify.

First Round (Wed., March 6)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 8 vs. No. 5, 7:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 vs. No. 6, approx. 10 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 7)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 4, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 10 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 8)

ESPNU will broadcast both games.

Game 5: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 1, 8 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, approx. 10:30 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 9)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 8 p.m. (ESPN2)

Pac-12

March 13-16: Las Vegas, Nev.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Arizona Wildcats

First Round (Wed., March 13)

Pac-12 Networks will broadcast all four games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 3 p.m.
Game 2: No. 12 vs. No. 5, approx. 5:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 vs. No. 7, 9 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 vs. No. 6, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1, 3 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 4, approx. 5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 2, 9 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 11:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 9 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Game 10: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, approx. 11:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 11: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Patriot

March 5, 7, 10, and 13: Greater seeds host (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Bucknell Bison

First Round (Tue., March 5)

Patriot League Network will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 9 in No. 8
Game 2: No. 10 in No. 7

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 7)

Patriot League Network will flow all four games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner in No. 1, 7 p.m, (Stadium)
Game 4: No. 5 at No. 4
Game 5: Game 2 Winner in No. 2
Game 6: No. 6 at No. 3

Semifinals (Sun., March 10)

CBSSN will broadcast both games.

Game 7: No. 8/5/4 in No. 1/4/5, 12 p.m.
Game 8: No. 7/6/3 in No. 2/3/6, two p.m.

Championship (Wed., March 13)

Game 9: Lowest-remaining seed in Highest-remaining seed, 7:30 p.m. (CBSSN)

SEC

March 13-17: Nashville, Tenn.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Kentucky Wildcats

First Round (Wed., March 13)

SEC Network will broadcast both games.

Game 1: No. 13 vs. No. 12, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 14 vs. No. 11, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Second Round (Thu., March 14)

SEC Network will broadcast all four games.

Game 3: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 1 p.m.
Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 5, approx. 3:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 10 vs. No. 7, 7 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 6, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Fri., March 15)

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 1, 1 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 4, approx. 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. No. 2, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)
Game 10: Game 6 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)

Semifinals (Sat., March 16)

ESPN will broadcast both games.

Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 1 p.m.
Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner, approx. 3:30 p.m.

Championship (Sun., March 17)

Game 13: Game 11 Winner vs. Game 12 Winner, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

SoCon

March 8-11: Asheville, N.C. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: UNCG Spartans

First Round (Fri., March 8)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 5, 8 p.m.
Game 2: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 7:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Sat., March 9)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games. Select Nexstar-owned channels will broadcast all four games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 1 Wofford Terriers, 12 p.m.
Game 4: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 2:30 p.m.
Game 5: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 2, 6 p.m.
Game 6: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Sun., March 10)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games. Select Nexstar-owned channels will broadcast all four games.

Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, 4 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, approx. 6:30 p.m.

Championship (Mon., March 11)

Game 9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 7 p.m. (ESPN/2)

Southland

The – through finishers won’t qualify.

First Round (Wed., March 13)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 8 vs. No. 5, 6 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 vs. No. 6, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 4, 6 p.m.
Game 4: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 5: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 1, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 2, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

SWAC

March 12: Greater seeds host (Bracket)
March 15-16: Birmingham, Ala..
2018 Champion: Texas Southern Tigers

The mid – and 10th-place finishers won’t qualify. While the Alabama A&M Bulldogs are ineligible for the postseason, the SWAC has enabled such teams to play at the conference tournament before.

Quarterfinals (Tue., March 12)

Game 1: No. 8 in No. 1
Game 2: No. 5 at No. 4
Game 3: No. 7 at No. 2
Game 4: No. 6 at No. 3

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

SWAC.org will flow both games.

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner, approx. 3:30 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 6 p.m. (ESPNU)

Summit

March 9-12: Sioux Falls, S.D. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

The finisher won’t qualify.

Quarterfinals (Sat., March 9)

Midco SN will broadcast both games. ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 8 vs. No. 1, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 vs. No. 2, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Sun., March 10)

Midco SN will broadcast both games. ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 3: No. 5 vs. No. 4, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Mon., March 11)

Midco SN will broadcast both games. ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner, 7 p.m.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, approx. 9:30 p.m.

Championship (Tue., March 12)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Sun Belt

March 12: Greater seeds host
March 14-17: New Orleans, La.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Georgia State Panthers

The 11th- and 12th-place finishers won’t qualify.

First Round (Tue., March 12)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 10 in No. 7, 12 p.m.
Game 2: No. 9 in No. 8, 12 p.m.

Second Round (Thu., March 14)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 6, 6 p.m.
Game 4: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 5, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Fri., March 15)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 5: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 3, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 4, approx. 8:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Sat., March 16)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. No. 2, 4 p.m.
Game 8: Game 6 Winner vs. No. 1, approx. 6:30 p.m.

Championship (Sun., March 17)

Game 9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)

WCC

March 7-9, 11-12: Las Vegas, Nev.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: Gonzaga Bulldogs

First Round (Thu., March 7)

BYU TV/Spectrum Sportsnet/AT&T SN Rocky Mtn. /Root Sports will broadcast both games. TheW.tv will flow both games.

Game 1: No. 9 vs. No. 8, 9 p.m.
Game 2: No. 10 vs. No. 7, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Second Round (Fri., March 8)

BYU TV/Spectrum Sportsnet/AT&T SN Rocky Mtn. Will broadcast both games. TheW.tv will flow both games.

Game 3: Game 1 Winner vs. No. 5, 9 p.m.
Game 4: Game 2 Winner vs. No. 6, 11:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals (Sat., March 9)

ESPN2 will broadcast both games.

Game 5: Game 3 Winner vs. No. 4, 10 p.m.
Game 6: Game 4 Winner vs. No. 3, approx. 12:30 a.m. 3/10

Semifinals (Mon., March 11)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs, 9 p.m. (ESPN/2)
Game 8: Game 6 Winner vs. No. 2, approx. 11:30 p.m. (ESPN/2)

Championship (Tue., March 12)

Game 9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

WAC

March 14-16: Las Vegas, Nev.. (Bracket)
2018 Champion: New Mexico State Aggies

The Cal Baptist Lancers, in their season, won’t participate.

Quarterfinals (Thu., March 14)

ESPN+ ($) will flow all four games.

Game 1: No. 8 Chicago State Cougars vs. No. 1 New Mexico State Aggies, 3 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 vs. No. 4, approx. 5:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 vs. No. 2, 9 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 vs. No. 3, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Semifinals (Fri., March 15)

ESPN+ ($) will flow both games.

Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner, 9 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner, approx. 11:30 p.m.

Championship (Sat., March 16)

Game 7: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 10:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Make Sure to follow @ChrisDobbertean on Twitter and to enjoy Blogging the Bracket on Facebook.

On rebounding

reb

We live at a time of analytical lots that is, yet you see rebound margin amounts flung up during that telecast or this in 2019. That makes me grit my teeth on screen, of course in the behaviours that are blatant, and, well, I m correct to do so. Rebound margin is in fact meaningless, an ersatz and mislabeled tribute paid to groups which change shots yet refuse to go for steals and/or fees (with all the above, rather, transpiring at a quick pace).

To the next I shall confess in defense of my brethren and sistren. I’ve been mulling how peculiar rebounds are for some time now, and (this may say more about me than about rebounding) I’m still not sure I’ve found solid ground with this specific subject.

Here’s what I believe I think….

Leave it s enduring and endearing idiosyncrasies to overturn axioms regarding sample size.

Rebound percentages in the college game are like the RPI. They may be fine, and they ll be congruent with present events. However, you can t trust them sight unseen, so use something where you will need to pop the hood up and inspect each and every time to the connections?

At this writing, Kentucky’s fourth in the nation in rebound percentage, and third at the SEC in conference play. Same for Duke, No. 5 nationally and No. 3 in its summit. Wake Forest’s been a standard deviation at getting rebounds.

Defensive rebound rates can interpret somewhat better from whole-season to summit (cf. Maryland, Colorado, and Michigan), but even here it is possible to ’t just assume that you ’re hitting statistical bedrock each moment. Require Kansas State, No. 17 nationally in defensive rebound percent, over a hundred spots higher than its closest in-conference competitor (Oklahoma, No. 132).

This isn ’ t a thing that is sample-size, although these numbers are in movement, obviously. It s one more more of a basketball thing, or, better still of a game.  There are just a few box score amounts that change as much as possible proportions due to how coaches decide to change their appearance for conference 33, to non-conference scheduling philosophies or.

There’s a brand new breed of inverse-Michigan rebounding teams, and it looks weird
For as long as basketball was played, there have been but that do well on the glass. Consider John Beilein when you think about the style. He’s always preferred to create his groups ’ shots via a low-low turnover rate while maintaining offensive rebounds rare although not self-defeatingly Wyoming-scarce (see below). We see this sort of team all the time, and one good thing that came with throwing about offensive and defensive rebound percentages instead of only “rebounds” as a counting stat is that we have the capability to provide this sort of team its thanks.

But in 2019, we re seeing and it’s extremely strange. Would you want to be terrible although good at rebounding at defensive?

Standard deviations above/below conference means
Conference games only

OR%     DR%     IMF

These are the IMF amounts we’ve seen in play in the previous five years. Purdue 2019 isn't far behind.

1 difficulty with defensive as a basketball metric that is descriptive, at least in discussions of who will win, is upon being in the presence of its version that is weak that coaches act. Michigan State to date has been awful at defensive however, with the exceptions of Fran McCaffery and Matt Painter, there'll be. The culture of training at the college level says rebounding’s not actually training since it’s not and can't be planned in the exact same hermetically sealed fashion a play call is.

Allen Edwards is running a very interesting experiment
Few groups in recent memory are more steadfast in their refusal of offensive rebounds than Wyoming this year, which at this writing is pulling down only 14.9 percent of its own missed shots in Mountain West play. You re at the performance horizon, As soon as you get down to 15 percent.

Bear in mind the most dedicated misanthropist can not get to zero. There will be “group boards in which the opponent mishandles a rebound and the ball goes out of bounds.

A 14.9 percent offensive rebound rate puts Wyoming under 13 individual Division I gamers , from Tyrique Jones into Mark Vital, all of whom are far more likely to rebound a teammate’s miss than are five Cowboys on the ground working together.

This is a great time to check group, since its voodoo that is zero-second-chances was used by it. Jordan Naughton came off the bench and hauled in three boards. That night, he was made to run the stadium steps.

In Mountain West play, the Cowboys have been utterly, gloriously and wonderfully normal concerning accuracy from the field (50.2 eFG percent ), which makes them a near-ideal test instance. It turns out that with this amount of shooting, no team scored anywhere near so points in 13 years of play.

Wyoming now

Possessions where one shot is tried and where there isn't any turnover enjoy an heuristic privilege that is overwhelming both in the finest analysis and in coaches ’ advance preparation in film breakdowns. Although you did nothing but look at picture of Wyoming’s possessions that are turnover-less up to the stage where the shooter is a miss or a create, you'd see zero that’s from the ordinary. I m weird, but, from my seat, Edwards is currently doing things that are interesting, if we'll listen.

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